Researchers at the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub predict a steady decline in COVID-19 cases and deaths by March 2022.
Its always possible to have a rosy best-case scenario, says Dr. Noymer.
But I expect the cyclicality to remain.
That means at some point in the future after March 2022 to have another wave.
Trying to predict COVID is like trying to predict the weather, says Dr. Labus.
But exactly what that looks like is really impossible to say.
Andrew Noymer, PhD, is an associate professor of population health and disease prevention at the University of California, Irvine.
Its Amazing How Its All Connected.
When we made these projections a year ago, it was before theDelta variantexisted.
This number explains how many people each case will, on average, infect.
When that number changes, all those calculations change too.
With more easily transmissible variants like Delta,that number is now 80 percent.
Both Dr. Noymer and Dr. Labus stress that COVID-19 will likely becomeendemic, meaning we will never eradicate it.
But we can get it to a point where we have it under control.
Theres going to be COVID in some way, shape, or form 10 years from now.
Dr. Labus likens this distant reality to what we currently experience with other vaccine-preventable diseases.
Andrew Noymer, PhD, is an associate professor of population health and disease prevention at the University of California, Irvine.
Look atAlaskaorWest VirginiaorOhioorIndiana, theyre seeing lots of cases right now, says Dr. Noymer.
We have vaccines in all of those places.
Not everyone wants a vaccine, but theyre available.
Booster shotsare recommendedbecause immunity against coronaviruses doesnt last very long, whether its gained through vaccination or infection.
Wearing masks when indoors is also important, explains Dr. Noymer.
This is so even when youre vaccinated because vaccinated people can still catch and transmit the virus.
Masking inside lowers the flame on the pot.
This all impacts the severity of the infection.
Here, a biochemist explains how they work:
Oh hi!
…
Got it, you’ve been added to our email list.
